Time-series analyses of food commodity prices in Meghalaya (July 2019 - June 2020)

Abstract

Meghalaya is a special case. The growth in the number of Covid-19 cases was very slow during all the lockdown phases. As on May 10, the total count of covid-19 cases in the state was 13, of which there was one death, two active cases and ten recoveries. Meghalaya did not see a second fatality due to the virus until July 7, and had reported a total of 89 cases by then. The state government extended night curfews and ban on inter-state movement of people till June 30. So unlike other states there was no pandemic. Using a long time -series of wholesale and retail prices of rice, potato, tomato and onion, covering the period year from 1st July 2019 to 30th June 2020, we use time series models to investigate co-movements between wholesale and retail prices over time and in three different market centres (Shillong, Jowai and Tura) and across theM. and time varying volatility. It is not surprising that the results are not so striking (unlike Maharashtra or Jharkhand), as Covid-19 never turned into a pandemic. However, supply and demand disruptions cannot be ruled out given the stringency of the lockdown and weak market integration.